Last-Minute Pivots: Navigating Uncertainty with Grace and Points

If you've ever spent months meticulously planning a trip, researching flights, comparing hotel redemptions, and mapping out itineraries, you know the satisfaction that comes with having everything locked in. Now imagine watching it all unravel in a matter of days due to events entirely beyond your control.

That's exactly where our family found ourselves this March Break. Two weeks out from March Break, geopolitical events forced us to pivot our plans to Abu Dhabi and Florence, and just prior to that, also my extended family's trip to Mexico.

It was stressful, humbling, and ultimately a testament to the flexibility that a well-diversified miles and points portfolio can provide.

My Family's Pivot from Mexico

I often write about taking trips with my extended family, however, this March Break, we were travelling separately. While my extended family prepared for a classic all-inclusive getaway in Cancun, our own itinerary was a bit more complex, spanning Abu Dhabi and Florence.

First, news broke out about the cartel violence escalating in Puerto Vallarta. With seniors and young children travelling, my family collectively decided that pivoting was the safest move, and as the most experienced traveller in the family, the task of finding an alternative naturally fell to me. We eventually landed on Punta Cana as the safe and comparable substitute.

While they were fortunate enough to secure flight cancellation waivers for their original flights to Cancun on Air Canada, the reality of a last-minute scramble set in quickly. They weren't the only ones looking for a "Plan B," and as the most desirable resorts in the Dominican Republic began to hit capacity, the costs for remaining flights and accommodation spiked.

Without deep pools of points to lean on, they were unfortunately left at the mercy of these high cash prices even with flying economy, which served as a stark reminder of why we should prioritize earning those flexible award balances.

Our Original Trip

For my own family, we had a much more ambitious itinerary in the works. If you read my earlier piece, Booked: March Break Trip to Abu Dhabi and Italy, you'll know we had planned six nights in Abu Dhabi visiting the theme parks and staying in the desert, followed by a few nights in Florence.

The flights were the real highlight. We had Qatar Airways QSuites booked from Toronto to Abu Dhabi with a short layover in Doha, where the Doha to Abu Dhabi segment was in first class; this would have given our whole family access to the spectacular Al Safwa First Class Lounge at Hamad International Airport.

On the hotel side, we had rooms lined up at the Hilton Abu Dhabi Yas Island and The WB Abu Dhabi, Curio Collection by Hilton on Hilton Honors points, and the Qasr Al Sarab Desert Resort by Anantara booked through Amex Fine Hotels & Resorts.

Then, the war between US and Israel against Iran began. The situation quickly spiralled into a broader conflict across the Middle East, and just like that, our Abu Dhabi plans were no longer safe.

With the trip in jeopardy, two immediate challenges emerged: cancelling our current bookings and figuring out where to go instead.

Cancelling Existing Plans - The Flights

The great thing about bookings made with points is that they tend to be significantly more flexible than cash fares. Most redemptions allow for changes or cancellations for a modest fee, while others are  completely free.

While Qatar Airways Privilege Club usually levies a $25 USD fee per person for award cancellations, the current geopolitical situation triggered Qatar Airways to issue a comprehensive cancellation waiver for flights to and from the Middle East, allowing us to cancel our booking and redeposit our points without penalty.

While the automated online system can often take several weeks to process a refund, contacting a Qatar Airways agent directly through their live chat or over the phone, can allow you to have your Avios redeposited into your account almost instantly. This is crucial if you need your Avios to rebook a trip quickly.

Etihad Airways has also introduced a similar cancellation policy, but it’s important to remember that an airline's waiver may differ from the policy of the program you actually booked through. At the time of writing, Air France/KLM Flying Blue has not yet offered a free cancellation waiver for our Abu Dhabi to Florence flight. I’m holding out hope that they’ll implement one before my cancellation deadline arrives.

Cancelling Existing Plans - The Accommodation

On the hotel side, most major brands offer reasonable flexibility. Both the Hilton Abu Dhabi Yas Island and The WB Abu Dhabi, Curio Collection allowed free cancellation up to a day prior to arrival, so no issues cancelling there.

The Qasr Al Sarab Anantara was a different story. The cancellation policy for the rate we booked was 60 days out and we were well past that window. Hotels generally will not touch bookings made through third party channels (ie. not booked directly through them). Because I booked through Amex Travel on the Fine Hotel & Resorts rate, I reached out to them for assistance. 

Amex Travel was easy to get in touch with via chat and was incredibly helpful. After several attempts at reaching the hotel via email and phone call, they were able to confirm the property would graciously grant us a free cancellation waiver.

All in all, we are fortunate to cancel the majority of our plans thus far at no cost.

It's worth noting, though, that credit card trip cancellation insurance generally does not cover cancellations, interruptions, or delays caused by war, terrorism, or civil unrest. These are standard exclusions in most policies, so had we not been able to secure those waivers, we would've been out of luck on the insurance front.

Rebooking from Scratch

With the Middle East off the table, I had two options: enjoy a staycation or plan a new trip. The easy choice would be to stay home, but that would've been a letdown for the family.

So I started hunting for award space. Search tools like seats.aero, Roame, and AwardTool were absolute lifesavers during this process. Cash prices for most flights were prohibitively expensive this close to departure, so we were truly at the mercy of whatever award availability would surface.

Since we still had return flights from Europe on Air Canada, I searched for availability to European destinations first. Out of curiosity, I also looked at Oceania as well, where the weather would be perfect at this time of year and the destination about as far from the conflict as possible.

As luck would have it, some compelling options appeared.

For Europe, I found five premium economy seats to London on Virgin Atlantic for 35,000 Virgin Points and $191 in taxes per person. London would've been a great gateway to connect onward to Italy, allowing us to keep our return flights from Florence. Virgin Atlantic Flying Club is a great program for various sweet spots, but only accessible if you have access to US credit cards.

On the Oceania side, something even more exciting materialized. I found four business class seats and one first class seat on Qantas from Melbourne to Los Angeles through AAdvantage for 80,000 and 110,000 miles respectively, plus $111 in taxes per person. For the outbound, I pieced together Toronto to Melbourne via San Francisco for 50,000 Aeroplan points in economy for the kids and either 70,000 United MileagePlus miles or $1,600 one-way per adult flying United in premium economy.

The trickiest part was the positioning flight back to Toronto on the last Sunday of March Break. Direct redemptions from Los Angeles were going for 60,000 Aeroplan points per person in economy, which was steep for a positioning leg. By checking various connecting cities, I was able to find Los Angeles to Newark for just 15,000 Aeroplan points and then a separate flight from New York back to Toronto for just over $200 per person.

After weighing both options, we chose Australia.

The weather in southern Australia would be ideal this time of year, and the idea of swapping the desert dunes of Abu Dhabi for Melbourne's coastline and Kangaroo Island's wildlife experiences was exciting. Pivoting destinations also meant building an entirely new itinerary from scratch, including lining up domestic flights within Australia, which took considerable time to hash out.

In the end, everything came together, and I'll be happy to share the full experience once we return.

Lessons Learned

We lucked out in securing award space to not just one but two potential destinations on short notice. Still, I won't sugarcoat it, the process was time-consuming and stressful.

For someone who tends to book major trips a year in advance, searching for last-minute award space was an entirely new experience. It required a tremendous amount of patience and grace, and I don't envy anyone who finds themselves in a similar position.

That said, several key lessons stood out from this ordeal:

• Book with points whenever possible: The flexibility that comes with award bookings, like changes and cancellation waivers for free or at a small fixed cost, is invaluable when the unexpected happens.
• Diversify across multiple programs: Having balances spread across Aeroplan, AAdvantage, Virgin Flying Club, and United MileagePlus gave me a range of options I wouldn't have had with a single currency. You don't necessarily need to hold a balance in every individual program, but having access to them through transferable bank partners is an advantage when you're dependent on limited last minute award space.
• Take advantage of transfer bonuses: Having previously transferred points during bonus promotions meant I had healthy balances in programs I might not have otherwise prioritized. That flexibility proved critical when it mattered most. Of course, transfer only if you know it's a currency you can easily use in the next few years.
• Lean on award search tools: Seats.aero, Roame, and AwardTool made it possible to scan availability across multiple programs and routes simultaneously. Doing this manually under my current time constraints would've taken much longer.
• Don't rely on insurance for geopolitical disruptions: War and civil unrest are standard exclusions in most credit card travel insurance policies. The flexibility of points bookings and the goodwill of airlines and hotels were what actually saved us.

Conclusion

This experience was a crash course in flexibility, and it reinforced what I've long believed about the value of a diversified miles and points portfolio.

While managing balances across multiple programs may not be for everyone, keeping a stash of flexible, transferable currencies, such as American Express Membership Rewards or Chase Ultimate Rewards, is the ultimate advantage when the world throws you a curveball. In a last-minute scramble, the ability to transfer points nearly instantaneously is what makes the difference between staying home and saving the trip.

I also came away with a deeper appreciation for the cancellation flexibility that award bookings provide. When cash bookings might have left us absorbing thousands of dollars in non-refundable losses, our points bookings gave us a way out.

I hope there won't be a next time. Maybe if there is, we'll just settle for a simple all-inclusive? Then again, who am I kidding.